I have a model that I’ve used to help pick stocks that I developed more than 20 years ago, when I was a kid or actually originally and use that to launch along only my first investment strategy, which was a long only strategy still around today, we call Crescat large cap. Many of you will already be familiar with him and Crescat through reading my work, as I have often shared his fantastic charts and insights with you. So there’s a lot of narratives out there, but when you when you just start by looking at the data, and then build your narrative around that, it really, you know, really helps to to, I think have a better combination of the you know, being able to explain what’s going on in the market and have it have a unique narrative to tell on what you know, what you believe is happening. Cassie graduated cum laude from Virginia Polytechnic State University with a B.S in Finance. Crescat Capital On The “Bill Gross Widowmaker Trade”. Tavi Costa on Resource Insider Marek Iwahashi January 28, 2021 Crescat News and Updates Tavi Costa discusses why silver is the biggest asymmetrical opportunity in the market today. “Tavi” built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a … My guest is Otavio “Tavi” Costa, co-fund manager at American hedge fund Crescat Capital. Well obviously the idea of finding contrarian ideas is just for more of the asymmetric returns. ValueWalk’s Raul Panganiban interviews Crescat Capital’s Kevin Smith And Tavi Costa, discussing their trade of the century idea. Raul Panganiban: Oh, nice. Prior to founding Crescat, he worked as a Wealth Advisor with Kidder Peabody. Client Service Associate. And when I came in, I realised how successful he was a really selecting and identifying as macro events, large macro events, and I thought that we should give more emphasis to that and perhaps that was more of where I wanted to lean towards to more on the macro side and really build things in terms of finding factors that have identify, you know, the changes in the business cycles in the past, especially when those indicators are very highly correlated to the changes in markets in general. Prior to joining Crescat, Richard was a Portfolio Manager at institutional asset managers and hedge funds including Russell Investments, Menta Capital, Crescat Partners, McMorgan & Company, and Barclays Global Investors where he has managed both quantitative and fundamental investment strategies. Raul Panganiban: All right. Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta). At the time, they were the largest fixed income underwriter on Wall Street and had the biggest inventory of mortgage backed securities. Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa – Member & Portfolio Manager Tavi is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. And this is what we found, especially when we started looking at China back in 2014, and 15. In a recent telephone interview with Kitco News, Tavi Costa, partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said that he is extremely bullish on silver as supply is expected to drop while investment demand remains consistent. Native of Sao Paulo, Brazil https://t.co/RGrU5z0kIY He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. Before founding Crescat, he worked as a wealth advisor at Kidder Peabody. So that’s a big part of what we do, you know, the value driven model side of what we do. At the time, we had one Bloomberg terminal and I remember, this guy would leave at around 4 or 5pm. (function () { Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is Global Macro Analyst for Crescat Capital. Another big theme of our so we like to look at Big Picture things, but we’re also value oriented. Nick is the General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer of Crescat Capital. In this part, Tavi and Kevin discuss what led them to finance and investing,what working at Crescat like, their focus on global macro themes and value driven models, and finding contrarian ideas. As a student, he served as Treasurer of CSU’s finance club and as an Equity Analyst for the school’s student managed mutual fund. He oversees Crescat’s legal and securities matters, and U.S and offshore regulatory compliance. Linda came to Crescat with significant investment industry and public accounting experience from prior employment at Kidder Peabody and EKS&H (now Plante Moran) and corporate experience as Controller of Pharmajet, a biotech company. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. miwahashi@crescat.net. Born and raised in New Jersey, Linda earned an MBA from the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business and a BA in English Language and Literature from Tufts University. var r = Math.floor(Math.random() * (9999 - 0 + 1) + 0); o****_@hotmail.com Show email and phone number. © 2011-2021 VALUEWALK LLC. But you know, when you look back in terms of the macro trade of the century, or just you know, which I know, you might want to touch in that, which is being long gold and Renminbi terms and be short global stocks, well, that thesis has started to work already. And it’s nonsense when you have such absurd valuations and particularly when you look at the data and you see that that massive liquidity injections and interest rate decreases coincide much more with recessions and economic crises than they do with being able to predict preempt and continue the business cycle. As Chief Operating Officer, she manages Crescat’s business operations, including finance, regulatory compliance, and client service. Born and raised in the San Francisco Bay Area, he received a bachelor’s degree in Economics and German studies from Stanford University. So I think that’s sort of the answer. I know, I should say I point out the Hong Kong dollar is even more important because it really is not pricing in the possibility of a real depeg in In terms of a real banking issue, or crisis that that could have, but the central bank reliance that we were seeing this days, which is actually something that we we see most times and then it’s when the Federal Reserve and central banks overall begin to cut rates and inject liquidity in the markets and investors begin to actually think the opposite way actually thinking that that’s bullish in and that’s really when central banks are actually in panic mode and starting to lose control of the whole situation and they have a very poor track record of doing of preventing cycles from turning in anyway, so I’m not sure why does reliance is so high these days. Kevin has been the lead Portfolio Manager of Crescat’s five investment strategies since their respective inceptions. Financial Representative Assistant @ The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America. It’s not, again, it’s not so systematic, actually how do you build models is really out of curiosity of thinking outside of the box, and then saying, well, how can I confirm it? Client Service Associate. And that’s really when we started to build those models. Crescat Capital On Developing Macro Models, Please speak to a licensed financial professional, Crescat Capital On Developing Macro Models [Interview], The Most Popular Machine Learning Trends Driving Growth of Fintech Industry, Advisors expect to lose nearly half of next generation heirs, Mark Cuban sees bitcoin as better than gold, likes Ethereum, Global Semiconductor Market Growth To Accelerate In 2021, The Texas Storm: Understood With Peter Kelly-Detwiler. ValueWalk’s Raul Panganiban interviews Crescat Capital’s Kevin Smith And Tavi Costa, discussing their trade of the century idea. I just remember, I think it was an interview that Tavi Costa had on the MBA podcast. So I think that that’s really how everything is starting to evolve. Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more, In 1999, Forbes Magazine published a list of eight investment rules that, according to the magazine, had "stood the test of time." And, you know, this idea that that the on debt the the ongoing liquidity that that that the Fed is providing is somehow going to support rising stock prices indefinitely, you know, has been, you know that that was such a pervasive narrative. And building this quote model that he started back in the 90s, I think was very helpful to build a lot of the macro themes that we had back in ’06 and ’05 or so this model, for instance, was flagging a lot of the homebuilders and banks prior to the global financial crisis that really helped him at the time to build the themes. I since I played tennis, I moved to a while I’m a since I’m foreigner, I’m a foreigner. Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Today's a very special episode with Kevin Smith CFA founder, CEO and CIO at Crescat Capital and Tavi Costa, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital. Quinton is a globally renowned exploration geologist with 30+ years of precious metals mining experience. The firm’s quarterly letters are top of my reading list for any investor at the moment. © 2008-2021 Crescat Capital LLC. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Marek also handles various operations, including performing daily trade reconciliation and settlement. Tavi is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. jo.src = 'https://www.financialjuice.com/widgets/voice-player.js?mode=inline&display=1&container=FJ-voice-news-player&info=valuewalk&r=' + r; Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. Richard has an MBA in Finance and Marketing from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a BBA in Finance (cum laude) from Pacific Lutheran University. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver. Raul Panganiban: Now that’s super cool. 0. Prior to joining Crescat, he worked as a Mutual Fund Analyst at Broadridge Financial Solutions and assistant branch manager at TCF National Bank. Tavi Costa December 6, 2018 Current Views Can you tell me more about your process and elaborate on each of those? For more information including how to invest, please contact: Marek Iwahashi. Nick earned a B.A. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. })(); ValueWalk.com is a highly regarded, non-partisan site – the website provides unique coverage on hedge funds, large asset managers, and value investing. Cassie has a lead role in crafting the firm’s marketing materials from strategy presentations to client reports, email communications, website, and social media content. We are, we’re a global macro shop in the sense that that we we like to look for big picture themes relative to to global GDP, you know, whether it’s the most overvalued US equity market in history, according to a composite of eight different indicators that we look at. Blog - Ask The Expert - Tavi Costa - March 2021 JavaScript seems to be disabled in your browser. He has been managing investment portfolios since 1992, a career spanning multiple business cycles. Crescat Capital global macro analyst. Tavi Costa December 18, 2018 Crescat News and Updates Chasing utilities is a classic development that happens at market tops. My insurance obviously it’s a little shorter given my age, but I was born and raised in Brazil, moved to the US to play tennis in college. Guess that’s a that’s an interesting question. She is focused on transparent and engaging communication of Crescat’s investment themes and strategies to distinguish the Crescat brand. 8 Investment Rules That Have Stood The Test Of Time, Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Client Service Associate. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. I’m sure there’s some soft landings and extensions of the business cycle. She is a Certified Public Accountant. Mission: Providing a framework to improve your investing PROCESS, while collecting newsworthy information about trends in business, politics and tech areas. In this part, Tavi and Kevin discuss the Chinese currency bubbles and banking Ponzi scheme, how high can consumer confidence go, and buying the dip. Prior to joining Crescat, Nicolas was Director of Business Development within the commodities division at S&P Global, where he covered clients in North and Latin America. With a strong background in finance, he works with clients to understand their needs, explain the firm’s strategies, open new accounts, and respond to inquiries. And you know, we’ve had that, but there is a business cycle the tide does go out and and we you know, obviously we think now that it is going out. He also has significant experience negotiating complex commercial agreements across a wide range of industries. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University. Linda Carleu Smith, CPA. Prior to joining Crescat, she worked as a Marketing Strategist for DISH Network in Englewood, CO. Max joined Crescat in 2020 after earning his undergrad in Finance from Colorado State University. Subscribe to ValueWalk Newsletter. He has played a key role in major global discoveries such as Novo’s Pilbara assets in Western Australia, First Mining Gold’s Springpole gold deposit in Ontario, Kirkland Lake Gold’s Fostervillegold mine in Australia, the Rattlesnake Hills gold deposit in Wyoming, and Lion One’s Tuvatu gold project in Fiji, among many others. Kevin Smith: So, Crescat actually comes from the University of Chicago motto and it’s me basically means to grow or let it grow. I went to Stanford and got an economics undergrad there. We really went from the quants to now more of a macro and it’s becoming it never really was a fully systematic process but that’s that’s basically how the whole thing developed in general. You know, that’s probably the most difficult one and, you know, I’d say me personally, I do have a higher risk tolerance than most people. In this part, Tavi and Kevin discuss the passive investing bubble and the ETF industry, the sectors which are not in a bubble, and their portfolio construction process.. Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Got my CFA along the way. Very nice. Today is a very special episode with Kevin Smith, CFA, Founder, CEO, and CIO and Tavi Costa, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital. Nicolas Ricciardi has more than 15 years of global institutional sales experience. I think that’s, that seems kind of obvious, really. He earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business with a specialization in Finance and a concentration in Statistics. Ryan came to Crescat with more than 10 years of industry experience as Specialized Services Trader at Scottrade and Fidelity Investments. Otavio (Tavi) Costa's Email. So yeah, just want to know if there’s, if you can comment first on the present day, and then the consensus thinking that you’re seeing today that won’t do well in five years and that you guys will have an edge on. He traded his own accounts through school and gained real world experience trading equities, options, futures, and forex before joining the team. January 28, 2021 - Crescat’s Portfolio Managers, Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa, provide insight on their current views of the economic environment and how their strategies are positioned to create value for Crescat clients. Marek stood out versus his peers by making strong grades in an accelerated degree program at the University of Colorado, Denver where he earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting and Finance and an MBA with a specialization in Finance in 2019 while working full time. I mean, stepping back, I think I think it was important to, to understand the history of how the investment process really started to evolve. jo.id = 'FJVoiceFeed'; ValueWalk also contains archives of famous investors, and features many investor resource pages. Partner & COO. And now, even combining now more technicals to kind of reaffirm the trends of those of those macro themes that we believe that that we should be, perhaps adding to it in a big way. So today I help in the process in general, not just in managing the portfolio, but also building models in our investment process overall and evolving that and in also helping to find the big trends, macro wise as well. We actually only report a few of those models to the world, a lot of them, we keep it to ourselves and it really helps us to to validate our thesis overall. Jacob Wolinsky. But, here I am, I started in the business with Kidder Peabody, which was in 92. Linda Carleu Smith, CPA. www.resource-insider.com ***EPISODE 40*** Jamie Keech and Tavi Costa, partner & portfolio manager at macro focused Crescat Capital, talk markets. And seeing if anything, if there’s a real trend on on anything, if there’s anything alarming for me to to point out, and that was really the beginning of that was, you know, sort of leading a macro presentation that we had on a weekly basis with Kevin and the team and it was just kind of sharing some of the things I was finding and that kind of evolved from there and then started to combine and use Kevin’s process of building models in terms of ranking things in general and started to apply the same idea on the macro side. D1 school, play tennis there, did a transfer to another school in St. Louis called Lindenwood University and then finish up college and move to Denver and started working with Gavin really, and that was sort of my introduction to hedge funds in general and started working as a more in the emerging markets area, I was focused in that part of the portfolio and kind of graduated from that and became more of a global macro analyst and then now a portfolio manager together with Kevin. Prior to joining Crescat, Nick worked in the alternative investments and global strategy divisions at U.S. Bank. It’s a big part of what we do in terms of picking stocks. Mining Opportunities with Kevin Smith, CFA, CEO, CIO and Tavi Costa, PM, Partner Crescat Capital Transcript: Raul Panganiban: Hello podcast listeners. Tavi Costa. He helps produce firm marketing materials, updates consultant databases, and assists the investment team. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more One might think that 20 years on, at least some of these rules would be out of date or no longer relevant. It’s not at a symmetric as it was before, but the room for growth in that trade is incredible. So move to Denver and start working at a country club as a tennis coach. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. And now, Hong Kong, and you can see that on how those currencies are being priced in the markets today, especially on the implied volatility of those currencies. Our things that can focus that people are not focusing on, that can maybe give us an edge in terms of have foreseen something about the markets and I think that that has been really helpful and I think it will continue to be. Especially like the situation that we’re having right now with the virus outbreak, you know, how what’s the impact in the economy in general? Raul Panganiban: Oh, nice. Kevin brings 28 years of investment management experience spanning multiple business cycles. And, so we’re willing to take you in as a value investor, too, I think you have to have a pretty high risk tolerance, because because intrinsic value and market price can, can differ so so much, and those tend to be the things we get the most excited about. Hello Podcast Listeners, Today is a very special episode with Kevin Smith, CFA, Founder, CEO, and CIO and Tavi Costa, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital. Cassie Fischer. Tavi Costa: To work at Crescat? Kevin Smith: Yeah, well, certainly some of the consensus thinking that we have seen recently has just been you know, what’s been driving this this incredible had been an incredible bull market and really the longest running economic expansion and bull market in US history. He was previously a VP of Investor Relations with Petaquilla Minerals, a Canadian gold producer, where he liaised with the investment and banking communities in North America and Europe. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of … So I think that combined with, with the value investing approach was a big difference. Additionally, Cassie is the point person for investment consultants and their databases. He is the creator of Crescat’s firmwide global macro investment process and systematic equity valuation model. Unsubscribe at any time. Tavi built the macro model ... www.resource-insider.com***EPISODE 13***Tavi Costa (Twitter: @TaviCosta) is a macro focused portfolio manager at Crescat Capital. youtu.be/3uCL8F9PUhY Client Service Associate. Crescat Capital January 6, 2020 Crescat News and Updates Tavi Costa says opportunity may be knocking for one sector that’s been down in the dumps for a while. Kevin Smith: Sure, really, those are the three key tenets of what we do when it comes to the investment process. Here to share macro insights. And so when, you know when you have such a big divergence, you know, You have to be willing to you know, to be able to ride out the volatility. So contrarian as it was, you know, a few months ago, but still, it still looks incredibly attractive to us as a trade in general. Anyway, so that’s a little bit on that. We respect your privacy. And so Crescat Capital means essentially let your money grow. Emerging Markets Analyst @ Crescat Capital. 303-271-9997 . 0. Early in his career he worked for major gold mining companies including Homestake Mining (now Barrick Gold Corp.), Newcrest Mining, and Newmont Corp. Later, Dr. Hennigh founded Novo Resources Corp (TSXV: NVO), acting as its CEO and currently serving as Chairman. I went to University of Chicago, where I got my MBA and finance and statistics. Raul Panganiban: Yeah, very cool. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. And so my indoctrination into the business was in in 1994, when we had the bond bear market and kidder Peabody, you know, pretty much almost blew up and Jack Welch, Kidder was owned by GE at the time Jack Welch ended up having to sell the firm to Paine Webber. He holds a BA in Political Science and International Relations from Universidad Catolica Argentina and is fluent in five languages. Mar 26, 2020, 9:37 am. Crescat Capital: Silver world's most attractive asset for under $ 30. And then the risk management just the other third key tenet of the investment process. Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. Crescat Capital partner and portfolio manager Tavi Costa, “Investors are starting to see the return of inflation. Crescat’s Macro Presentation. He earned a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. lsmith@crescat.net (303) 228-7371 © 2020 Crescat Capital LLC Tavi Costa: [inaudible] to Kevin’s idea. But it seems Read More. I mean, we get trolled just incredibly in most of our tweets, you know, trying to show the contrarian view to that. My name is Tavi Costa, and I am a native of Sao Paulo, Brazil. cfischer@crescat.net (303) 350-4000 . Linda is a Co-Founder of Crescat Capital. Still, I mean, it’s just the beginning. Silver is now the world's most attractive asset, with a price below $ 30, according to investment firm Crescat Capital. -. Where you said that you like to have a contrarian thinking and to challenge the consensus thinking, like by looking at themes that everyone is believing in today that won’t do well in five years. What are things that I can look at that other people are not looking at? degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Cassie Fischer. So I’ve kind of been on the path of, you know, towards finance and investing from an early educational career, took some other twists and turns along the way. Otavio (Tavi) Costa Crescat Capital portfolio manager. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. I think that searching for that, what’s at the centre of a lot of the imbalances is very important, and we think it’s China. Denver, Colorado. He is also responsible for maintaining the firm’s portfolio track records and internal systems, including the automation and production of its equity and macro models. But really wearing a lot of hats and kind of didn’t want to be much of the marketing and wanted to be more on the analytical side and kind of grew and, you know, at the wheel. miwahashi@crescat.net. Yeah, if we can just begin with your backgrounds and what led you to finance and investing? Richard is a Data Scientist at Crescat Capital where he is responsible for quantitative research and risk management. All rights reserved. Partner & Portfolio Manager . Yeah. We won't send you spam. She became COO in 2015. For more information including how to invest, please contact: Marek Iwahashi. Tavi Costa. Finance Summer Internship @ Umuarama Artefatos Latex. Partner & Portfolio Manager . And then on your site, you lay out your process and focuses on global macro themes, value driven models and prudent risk management. Jacob Wolinsky. 1560 Broadway Suite 2270 Denver, CO 80202 phone: 303 271 9997 fax: 303 271 9998 info@crescat.net cfischer@crescat.net (303) 350-4000 . And, you know, there’s over 50 underlying factors in this in this quant model, and then we still use it today. Tavi is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. Partner & COO. You've heard me refer to their quarterly summaries as "mini In Gold We Trust" reports and Tavi was honored that I would place them in that category. So, you know, understanding that understanding that you know, the when things start to play out, you know, it’s it validate your thesis, obviously, that’s not so. Tavi Costa: Well, I would say, I started by spending a lot of time aggregating data, looking at data in general and pulling data from, from different sources and, and just spending less time reading the news and more time looking at the data itself. ValueWalk’s Raul Panganiban interviews Crescat Capital ’s Kevin Smith And Tavi Costa, discussing their trade of the century idea. It’s incredible how a lot of investors in general don’t put the homework of really looking at the data. Ryan is currently working towards the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and has passed the CFA Level 1 Exam. Please speak to a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions. Tavi Costa: I’m just going to echo Kevin here. He formerly helped to establish the institutional sales desk of MLV & Co., a Wall Street boutique investment bank, serving generalist and resource-oriented investors. ValueWalk’s Raul Panganiban interviews Crescat Capital’s Kevin Smith And Tavi Costa, discussing their trade of the century idea. Now, when you were developing those macro models, how do you go about it? Kevin Smith: Yeah, I mean, when we talk about how we develop themes, and use models, macro models to do that, I think it’s, you know, it’s, it’s really important that to let the data you know, help you to build the narrative.